Last updated on July 2, 2025
In this Deluxe Backgammon post for beginners, we take a look at the concept of Match Equity in backgammon. It can be quite an intimidating concept for newcomers to the game. However, it is important to understand the concept to advance to an intermediate level and beyond. It only applies to match play as opposed to money play or single games.
Match equity is a concept in backgammon that refers to the likelihood of winning a match, which is a series of games played between two players. In a match, each player begins with a target of a certain number of points. The first player to reach the predetermined number of points wins the match. Typically, matches are played to 5 or 7 points. However, this can be as high as 25 points in tournament play (USBGF Tournament Rules). This is in contrast to money play, where players simply play individual games for agreed stakes. In match play, scores are typically referred to in terms of the number of points each player is away from victory. For example, if a player is leading 5-4 in a 7-point match, this is referred to as “2-away, 3-away”.
Formula
There isn’t one single, universally simple formula for match equity that is easy to calculate by hand for all scenarios, especially considering factors like gammons and the Crawford rule. Match equity is typically derived through extensive simulations or complex mathematical models that account for the probabilities of winning individual games, gammons, and the effect of the doubling cube at different match scores.
There are a number of widely accepted formulas, none of which work in all situations. The most widely noted are: Janowski’s formula and the Turner formula. There are also a number of match equity tables that can be committed to memory, such as Woolsey’s match equity table and the Rockwell Kazaross match equity table (see below). All of these would need to be committed to memory. Your opponent is certainly not going to be happy if you are entering these details into your smartphone every time a cube decision is being analysed (Calculating and Using Match Equities at Backgammon Galore)..
Strategy and tactics
Match equity has a significant impact on strategy and tactics in backgammon. In general, players will adopt more aggressive tactics when they have a high match equity, meaning they are likely to win the match regardless of the outcome of any individual game. Conversely, players will adopt more conservative tactics when they have a low match equity, meaning they need to win a higher percentage of the remaining games to have a chance of winning the match.
For example, if a player is leading a match 7-5 and needs one more point to win, their match equity is very high. They can afford to take more risks, such as leaving blots or making more aggressive plays. This is because even if they lose the next game, they still have additional opportunities to win the match. In contrast, if a player is behind 5-7 and needs to win three more points, their match equity is low. They may adopt more conservative tactics, such as playing more defensively and avoiding leaving blots, in order to try and win the required games without giving up too many points to their opponent (Backgammon strategies at The Spruce Crafts).
Rockwell Kazaross match equity table
The “Rockwell-Kazaross” table is the most widely recognised match equity table in backgammon. It was developed by David Rockwell and Neil Kazaross through extensive rollouts on eXtremeGammon. The table shows the probability of a player winning the match based on the number of points each player needs to complete the match. For example, the entry E(-3,-5) represents the probability of a player winning the match when they need three points to complete the match, and their opponent needs five points. This is different from the standard backgammon notation.
The entries where one player is only one point away are known as “pre-Crawford” probabilities. This is because they assume the next game is played under the Crawford rule. The rule prevents either player from doubling their opponent and winning the match in a single game. Pre-Crawford probabilities are typically used to calculate take points, while post-Crawford probabilities are rarely used in practice (The Rockwell-Kazaross Match Equity Table at Backgammon Galore).
Summary
Match equity is not essential for casual or social backgammon play. In friendly games, most players rely on intuition and general game sense rather than thinking in terms of exact probabilities or match-winning chances. Cube decisions are often made based on gut feeling, and the focus tends to be on enjoyment, pace, and social interaction rather than mathematical optimisation. However, having a basic awareness of match equity can enhance a player’s understanding of strategy, making the game more intellectually satisfying. While not required, even a little knowledge of match equity can help explain why certain plays or cube actions work better than others in specific score situations.
Advanced players can’t (and don’t) reference match equity tables or formulas during live tournament play, especially considering the time constraints. Instead, they rely on internalised knowledge, pattern recognition, and reference points memorised through years of study and play.
Interesting concept, is it needed for social play? We play simple one off games in local cafes, the loser bows out and joins the end of the queue.
Hi Niki, you don’t need to understand match equity if you are playing money (single) games. You don’t even need to use the doubling cude in backgammon (but we recommend you do!). Maybe try a Backgammon chouette for something different? Thanks for taking the time to comment, enjoy your backgammon!